FTK Blog: Who will win Group H? let’s do the maths!

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The winners of Group H could be decided tonight if results go in our favour. Currently Arsenal top the group with 9 points from 3 played, closely followed by Shakhtar on 6 points.  If we win and Braga lose or draw we will qualify at the head of the group. If Braga win and we fail to make further progress which seems most unlikely then apparently we will need to be beaten by at least 7 goals in the final Braga game, again most unlikely. These figures have been lifted from our Official site, and if you want to make sense of how someone has worked out this 7 goal difference then bear with me. Here is the group table as it currently stands and don’t say that I didn’t warn you,

once negative numbers come into it my eyes tend to gloss over but this is how I reckon  Arse com have worked it out. If Braga win 1-0 and we lose 1-0 then the goal difference will be Braga -6 and Arsenal  +11 for me that means if the two remaining games are lost by Arsenal again 1-0 then our goal difference would reduce to +9 Braga if they won their 2 remaining fixtures 1-0 would have -4 goal difference. The range between these two values is 13 by my simple math, so  adding 7 to Braga (+3) and reducing Arsenal by 7 (+2) Hence Braga top the group. The aim of this exercise is to persuade us all that we should not take it for granted that we are through.
Yet if the only reason for raising what seems like a pointless issue of calculations based on hypothetical results is the concern that this Arsenal team must not become complacent and think that it is in the bag.  Then Arse com  just say it, please don’t provide calculations that defy not only reality but it would mean that this Arsenal team would have to collapse in spectacular fashion and of course Braga would have to keep a clean sheet.  Well let’s look at the stats and see how likely this is?

Arsenal lead the stats very convincingly and looking at the possession and the number of shot attempts on target, it seems wholly unlikely that we are going to suffer defeats on the basis that I have speculated. Equally given the number of goals already conceded by Braga, it again seems very silly to suggest that they will ride out the campaign with clean sheets. So in essence this is just a waste of ink, but Seeing as there is little else to say about this fixture that hasn’t already been said,  I’d thought that I would blog on something different to everyone else. Sorry if you feel that I have wasted your time, but anyone reading the Arse com preview like myself might have also wondered how the hell did they work that out? So I have hopefully saved you the mathematical pain!
So let’s concentrate on what is actually being said by the participants.
Shakhtar are hurting according to their coach and feel humiliated by the 5:1 drubbing at The Emirates. Shakhtar ‘s coach Mircea Lucescu, had this to say

“We have been waiting impatiently to play Arsenal at home. I will say it again: that final score [in London] was not fair. They did not have an advantage in terms of possession; the number of shots on goal and corners was almost equal. I was not satisfied with our performance and neither were the players. We analysed the game and have paid attention to our mistakes and shortcomings. I hope our supporters and the whole of Europe will see another Shakhtar.

The early goal in London ruined our plans. We were forced to attack. When you play open football, you give your opponents space. At the same time the number of mistakes you make increases. I told my players this before the match in London, but unfortunately we weren’t able to avoid it. I don’t think Arsenal are stronger than Shakhtar and we will do our best to prove it.”

(Sound of a very large gauntlet hitting the ground)
Ok in rely Arsene Wenger had this to say…

“I expect Shakhtar Donetsk to have a reaction of course and a response from that heavy defeat. They are a better side than they showed [in London]. For me, they are one of the best European sides. On the other hand, we have a good opportunity to qualify straight away and finish top of the group and you want to take that chance. I believe as well we want to confirm that we are stepping up a gear from game to game and that we are capable of being consistent, and that is what is at stake for us.

[Donetsk] is always a difficult place [to get a result]. For example, before you always had special weather, special pitches and special conditions to travel so it was always a difficult side to play. But I must say the last time we played at Shakhtar we were already qualified and of course the focus was not exactly the same than if you have to play for qualification.”

Obviously Arsene hasn’t read the Arse com predictor of doom…lol!
In any event the match may see the likes of Craig Eastmond playing in Alex Song’s role as both team have Injuries. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Song, Denilson, and Arshavin. In comes hopefully Jay Emmanuel-Thomas and Jack Wilshere with possibly Theo Walcott and Chamakh as the strike pairing. Shakhtar on the other hand will miss Jadson, Henrik Mkhitaryan and of course Fernandinho who broke his leg in September.
The other factor that may play a part is the environment. In Ukraine currently the temperature is 7 degrees Celsius or 46 Fahrenheit, this can fall to below -5 degrees (23 F) and when one takes into account the artificial surface, then the fixture starts to veer towards the home team right from the kick off.  If we can maintain possession close to that achieved at the Emirates, then I am quietly confident. If we can avoid injuries as well then let’s look forward to sealing this group and allow our second string players to enjoy some Champions League experience against Braga and Partizan in the remaining fixtures. My prediction?  Shaktar  2 Arsenal 1
Ok…. I lied)  Shakhtar 1 Arsenal 3