One of the most astonishing aspects of our wonderful game of football, is the uncertainty thrown up by results going against the form book. Earlier on this season, one could have been forgiven for thinking that Chelsea were not only going to retain their crown but that they were going to establish their vice like grip on the trophy by winning at a canter, it now looks as if they will have a major battle to secure fourth spot from Spurs. Liverpool whose previous membership of the prestigious top four was never in doubt until recently, appear to be making the right moves to restore their credentials. But below them the chasing pack are separated by a handful of points, and one win can move a team six places up the division.
There is a debate going on as to whether the English Premier league has become more competitive with the middle ranking teams investing more in their playing squads, or the converse. Are we approaching an SPL scenario, where the leading pack are pulling away from the rest of the league. There are many reasons why a club’s fortunes may improve or deteriorate over the course of several seasons. The continuity of playing squads is obvious, but equally reinforcements from the transfer market could be a factor in determining the fortunes of a club.
The changing of managers may also play a role in the success or failure of a club. What has become clear, is that changing the incumbent after a period of mediocrity may not actually be the sensible option for Club Chairmen. The trend appears to be for managers to be given around 12 – 15 games to prove their worth, irrespective of the length of the contracts. From the players perspective it is possible that the introduction of the 25 man squad and home grown requirements will also soon start to have an impact on some teams. Once injuries and suspensions have removed key players from the first eleven, if the rest of the squad cannot reinforce the absentees, then the form of that club will suffer.
There is also the possibility that the premier league does now have a league within a league, if one looks at the gap in points terms between the Champions League places and those acquired by the relegated teams over the last few seasons. I have looked at the points differential between the fourth qualifying Champions League spot and the first relegation position in the league since Arsenal’s invincible season. Why then you ask? Well, the introduction of Roman Abromovich’s billions seems to have had a major effect on the fortunes of teams around them. Arsenal’s subsequent success or lack thereof has been affected not only by the “money for trophies” approach of rich Billionaires, but also the new stadium project at the Emirates.
| Season | AFC Final Position | Points diff 4th CL pos -1st Relegation pos |
| 2003/4 | 1st | 33 |
| 2004/5 | 2nd | 28 |
| 2005/6 | 4th | 33 |
| 2006/7 | 4th | 30 |
| 2007/8 | 3rd | 40 |
| 2008/9 | 4th | 38 |
| 2009/10 | 3rd | 40 |
It can be seen from the table that a marked gap has opened up since 2005/6 the second title success of Chelsea. I am suggesting that it was the awareness of club chairmen that in order to stay in the Premier league club, or indeed have a realistic chance of silverware, massive investment was needed if the Chelsea experiment was anything to go by. Currently there is a 20 point difference between the fourth position and the first relegation spot, with 12 games to go. Last season the three teams that were finally relegated had only 23 pts (Burnley) and 24 pts (Hull City) respectively. The third and fourth teams Arsenal and Manchester City had 52 and 45 points respectively. So there was a 21 point gap which suggests that if the trend continues, the final difference between the Champions league places and relegation will again be of the order of 40 points.
There are several reasons why the gap between the “top four” and the rest of the pack is widening. The most obvious is financial spends. The clubs concerned invest huge sums and in so doing they are able to attract the best players. Continuity of coaching staff is essential and certainly in the case of Manchester United and Arsenal, teams that have not had frequent changes of manager also seem to do well. One of the biggest arguments for continuity with respect to the playing squad is the development of a youth academy and these have flourished in clubs that have a good long term business plan. However with the news that The Champions League at Wembley is going to cost the fans a minimum of £176 a ticket up to £300 with staggering administration fees, the price for high player salaries is being paid for by ordinary fans.
When one looks at the average spend each transfer window of clubs, it is clear (Arsenal apart) that clubs are effectively trying to buy themselves a seat at the Premiership table. So how much does a season ticket at this prestigious table cost a club? It is a nett spend of at least £5,000,000 per season using figures in from the table below reproduced from Transfer league.com. Chelsea is not guaranteed a Champions League trophy or a place in next year’s competition yet but they continue to spend massively which confirms how flawed the premise is. The high spenders do not always guarantee silverware , but they do prevent themselves getting relegated. The real cost of success in lifting trophies also has a minimum financial requirement. Manchester United have spend just over a quarter of a billion pounds to acquire a Champions League Trophy and several league titles. Spend half a billion and in the example of Chelsea this will get you 3 Premier league titles a Carling Cup and FA Cup.
| Net Spend 03 – 10/11 | Purchased Gross | Sold | Nett | Per Season | |
| 1 | Chelsea | £524,700,000 | £135,400,000 | £389,300,000 | £48,662,500 |
| 2 | Manchester City | £475,220,000 | £86,575,000 | £388,645,000 | £48,580,625 |
| 3 | Tottenham | £295,400,000 | £163,250,000 | £132,150,000 | £16,518,750 |
| 4 | Liverpool | £336,680,000 | £235,530,000 | £101,150,000 | £12,643,750 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | £165,200,000 | £73,625,000 | £91,575,000 | £11,446,875 |
| 6 | Birmingham City | £96,325,000 | £43,725,000 | £52,600,000 | £6,575,000 |
| 7 | Manchester United | £264,350,000 | £215,200,000 | £49,150,000 | £6,143,750 |
| 8 | Sunderland | £127,730,000 | £81,950,000 | £45,780,000 | £5,722,500 |
| 9 | Stoke City | £55,070,000 | £13,495,000 | £41,575,000 | £5,196,875 |
| 10 | Bolton | £60,650,000 | £26,850,000 | £33,800,000 | £4,225,000 |
| 11 | West Bromwich Albion | £70,085,000 | £37,190,000 | £32,895,000 | £4,111,875 |
| 12 | Wolves | £45,275,000 | £16,625,000 | £28,650,000 | £3,581,250 |
| 15 | Fulham | £72,980,000 | £47,045,000 | £25,935,000 | £3,241,875 |
| 14 | Everton | £106,050,500 | £83,100,000 | £22,950,500 | £2,868,813 |
| 15 | West Ham | £117,230,000 | £98,925,000 | £18,305,000 | £2,288,125 |
| 16 | Blackpool | £4,700,000 | £350,000 | £4,350,000 | £543,750 |
| 17 | Wigan | £72,565,000 | £74,600,000 | -£2,035,000 | -£254,375 |
| 18 | Arsenal | £147,050,000 | £149,870,000 | -£2,820,000 | -£352,500 |
| 19 | Newcastle | £136,100,000 | £144,900,000 | -£8,800,000 | -£1,100,000 |
| 20 | Blackburn Rovers | £68,702,000 | £83,590,000 | -£14,888,000 | -£1,861,000 |
| Hull | £24,080,000 | £10,475,000 | £13,605,000 | £1,700,625 | |
| Burnley | £15,005,000 | £15,825,000 | -£820,000 | -£102,500 | |
| Portsmouth | £95,600,000 | £116,460,000 | -£20,860,000 | -£2,607,500 |
Arsenal over the same period have spent around £150 million, and maintained their top four ranking, so staying in the top four also has a price. This season sees Arsenal challenging again for several trophies, however the place in February’s Carling Cup final has not been down to the expenditure of millions, merely the change of the players available for selection. Arsenal have used the competition to blood youngsters and give them a taste of top flight football. Arsenal have also had to cope with financial pressures related to the Stadium development and surrounding building projects. Yet when compared to the rest of the Premier league, Arsenal have not thrown money at the pursuit of Trophies. Despite the frustration of it’s fanbase, this adherence to a footballing philosophy has earned Arsenal Football Club respect the world over.
In conclusion then, the Premier league is a league that has allowed itself to become governed by a flawed premise, that money will buy a club security and success. Much of this funding has come from broadcasting deals and elevated season ticket prices. There is a perceived widening of the gap between the top and bottom clubs, and Blackpool apart, it is going to be extremely difficult for Championship Clubs that do not have vast funds at their disposal to prevent themselves being relegated within two seasons.
The middle ranking clubs are spending excessively to maintain their place in the Premier league with only the prospect of silverware in cup competitions. This is done by strengthening player squads at the expense of youth academies. The Top clubs, Arsenal apart are having to spend between 10 to 20 million pounds a season to maintain their positions in European competitions. The league is therefore only more competitive in financial terms. There is also the observation that in points totals a wide gap is appearing between the top and bottom of the league, which I interpret to be that those teams with fewer points accumulated at the end of the season are those who play the worst football, and are therefore easier to beat by the middle ranking and top teams. But does this provide evidence that the league as a whole is easier? Probably not.
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