Searching the Stats: Arsenal’s Trophy Chances

As everyone in the world is aware, Arsenal have been knocked out of the FA Cup. In the past four years, the oldest cup competition in the world has been an oasis of glory in otherwise difficult seasons for the Gunners.

Most notably last season, when Arsenal finished at their lowest point under Wenger, and the club was in disarray, a superb cup final win over Chelsea helped fans forget the more serious problems at the club.

Now that Arsenal are out of this cup, and there is no chance of winning the league, what do the stats tell us about the likelihood of Arsenal lifting silverware in 2018?

The League Cup

Arsenal fans have a general distrust of the league cup. On one hand it is a trophy, on the other hand it isn’t valued particularly highly by teams in the top 6. It is a trophy that doesn’t demonstrate a top-quality team, but no one wants to concede a goal in the last minute against Birmingham at Wembley.

Arsenal last won the cup in 1993, a season in which Arsenal finished 10th in the Premier League (only 3 years before Wenger arrived at Arsenal). This is a good sign for the Gunners, as torrid times have been had before by Arsenal, and they still managed a league cup win.

Despite being discarded by bigger teams, of the last 10 league cup winners, 8 have been from the current top 6. Despite a lack of interest, it tends to be the big boys that lift the trophy. Arsenal’s chances this year though are slim.

Not only do they have to outdo Chelsea over two legs, they then have a potential final game against Manchester City. If Arsenal can’t beat Nottingham Forest, West Brom or Liverpool in recent weeks, it’s hard to imagine how they intend to undo Guardiola’s Man City.

The Europa League

I believe there is more chance of Arsenal winning this than the League Cup. Yes, there is further to go, but Man City are not in it.

In the last 10 seasons, five of the finalists have been British, with two winners. On both occasions, the winning British team have been below par in the league, but have trucked along in Europe.

Arsenal have an exceptional squad for the Europa League, as proven by their goal scoring record in the competition, ranking them the third top scorers out of the 48 teams in the group stage.

The team has to be considered one of the strongest in the competition, alongside the likes of Atletico Madrid and Napoli, and with Wenger hoping for his first major European trophy, the Europa League could be the one to watch for Arsenal fans this year.