When I did my blog Eight is a lucky number , FTK’s analysis of the remainder of the season I predicted that we would beat Man Citeh, and that Aston Villa would draw with a depleted Man Yoo side. Well thanks to an amazing goal by their Italian youngster Federico Macheda, Man Utd managed to beat Aston Villa when with 10 mins to go, they were losing 2:1. So for once Man Yanited did us a favour. Instead of a five point gap, we still have six points which is a good cushion to have with the dodgy games at Old Trafford and Anfield to come. Wigan our next opponents lost 4-0 to Everton, so now the pressure is on Aston Villa to even retain fifth spot with the merseysiders on their necks just one point behind.
One Insider (called Gooner!) suggested that my blog should have been tabulated, but with the amount of work I had to do at the time it was very difficult to do. But now with the results in for this weekend, I shall recap what I predicted and updated today in tabular form. If you want to read my reasoning for the results, go back and read my blog So here goes. The Premier League table as it now stands shows the following:
| Pos. 5/4/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 8 | Man Utd | 21 | 4 | 32 | 68 |
| 2. | 7 | Liverpool | 19 | 2 | 34 | 67 |
| 3. | 7 | Chelsea | 19 | 5 | 34 | 64 |
| 4. | 7 | Arsenal | 16 | 5 | 23 | 58 |
| 5. | 7 | Aston Villa | 15 | 9 | 6 | 52 |
Legend = Automatic Group entry Champions League 2009/10
= Qualifying position for Champions League 2009/2010
= Europa Cup League Entry
The round of games in my blog suggested the following table outcomes ManU v Sunderland, Liverpool vBlackburn, Chelsea v Bolton and Aston Villa v Everton. Whilst its a draw for AV on paper, the proximity of an FA semi for Everton may dilute their squad.
| Pos.12/4/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 7 | Man Utd | 22 | 4 | 33 | 71 |
| 2. | 6 | Liverpool | 20 | 2 | 35 | 70 |
| 3. | 6 | Chelsea | 20 | 5 | 36 | 67 |
| 4. | 6 | Arsenal | 17 | 5 | 25 | 61 |
| 5. | 6 | Aston Villa | 16 | 9 | 8 | 53/5 |
SAKA, ANTONY AND 10 PREMIER LEAGUE STARS HEADING TO THEIR FIRST WORLD CUP
Saturday 18th of April sees ManU and Chelsea and Arsenal involved in FA Cup semi-finals. Liverpool have a game in hand . Aston Villa play against West Ham and as analysed by me this may produce the following table.
| Pos.18/4/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 7 | Man Utd | 22 | 4 | 33 | 71 |
| 2. | 6 | Liverpool | 20 | 2 | 35 | 70 |
| 3. | 6 | Chelsea | 20 | 5 | 36 | 67 |
| 4. | 6 | Arsenal | 17 | 5 | 25 | 61 |
| 5. | 5 | Aston Villa | 17/8 | 9 | 10/12 | 54/8 |
MORE ARSENAL STORIES
The “Big Four” are now involved in midweek games. Arguably the biggest is Arsenal v Liverpool on the 21/4/09 I feel that it in Arsenal’s interests that Liverpool and Man Utd are locked tightly together for the Premier League so that we can win a Cup!
| Pos. 22/4/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 6 | Man Utd | 23 | 4 | 34 | 74 |
| 2. | 5 | Liverpool | 20 | 2 | 35 | 71 |
| 3. | 5 | Chelsea | 21 | 5 | 36 | 70 |
| 4. | 5 | Arsenal | 17 | 6 | 25 | 62 |
| 5. | 5 | Aston Villa | 17/18 | 9 | 10/13 | 54/58 |
Now the table is looking very interesting, but Arsenal have still got a cushion of sorts with difficult fixtures still to go at Old Trafford in both hopefully the Premier League and the Champions League.
| Pos. 26/4/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 5 | Man Utd | 24 | 4 | 35 | 77 |
| 2. | 4 | Liverpool | 21 | 2 | 37 | 74 |
| 3. | 4 | Chelsea | 21 | 5 | 37 | 71 |
| 4. | 4 | Arsenal | 18 | 6 | 27 | 65 |
| 5. | 4 | Aston Villa | 18/19 | 9 | 10 | 57/61 |
With the gap possibly down to four points or restored to 8 depending on Aston Villa’s results again…
| Pos. 2/5/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 4 | Man Utd | 25 | 4 | 36 | 80 |
| 2. | 3 | Liverpool | 23 | 2 | 37 | 77 |
| 3. | 3 | Chelsea | 21 | 5 | 37 | 71 |
| 4. | 3 | Arsenal | 19 | 6 | 27 | 68 |
| 5. | 3 | Aston Villa | 19/20 | 9 | 10 | 60/64 |
The next round will be a very interesting especially as this Man Utd’s game in hand against Struggling Wigan on13/5/09 this result may open up a four point gap with 2 games to go. Craven Cottage has been a fortress this season, and I bank that they may just do the Gunners a favour by getting a draw. Arsenal beat Chelsea at the Emirates to make up ground.
| Pos. 10/5/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 3 | Man Utd | 26 | 4 | 39 | 83 |
| 2. | 2 | Liverpool | 24 | 2 | 39 | 79 |
| 3. | 2 | Chelsea | 21 | 5 | 36 | 74 |
| 4. | 2 | Arsenal | 20 | 6 | 28 | 71 |
| 5. | 2 | Aston Villa | 19/20 | 9 | 10 | 61/65 |
13/5/09 result of ManU v Wigan sees the Mancs open up a whopping five point lead over Liverpool…
| Pos. 13/5/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 2 | Man Utd | 27 | 4 | 41 | 86 |
| 2. | 2 | Liverpool | 24 | 2 | 39 | 79 |
| 3. | 2 | Chelsea | 21 | 5 | 36 | 74 |
| 4. | 2 | Arsenal | 20 | 6 | 28 | 71 |
| 5. | 2 | Aston Villa | 19/20 | 9 | 10 | 61/65 |
Now we coming down to the final two games with no games in hand for Man Utd. Arsenal need to spoil ManU’s celebration party to avoid losing fourth place especially if the gap is down to two points. I predict however a defeat for the Gunners with a degree of realism I’m afraid. but Aston Villa cannot overtake the Gunners goal difference which is worth an extra point. Can Wenger stop Ferguson raising the trophy after the match with Arsenal, I hope the pride of the players, will prove me wrong!
| Pos. 16/5/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 1 | Man Utd | 28 | 4 | 42 | 89 |
| 2. | 1 | Liverpool | 25 | 2 | 41 | 82 |
| 3. | 1 | Chelsea | 22 | 5 | 36 | 77 |
| 4. | 1 | Arsenal | 20 | 6 | 28 | 71 |
| 5. | 1 | Aston Villa | 20/21 | 9 | 10 | 64/68 |
The last game will decide the fate of the rest of the teams with Man U again winning the Premiership if not on points, assuming they beat Arsenal. The Gunners will have a three point margin or finish
| Pos. 24/5/09 | Games left | Team | Won | Lost | Goal Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 0 | Man Utd | 29 | 4 | 43 | 92 |
| 2. | 0 | Liverpool | 26 | 2 | 43 | 85 |
| 3. | 0 | Chelsea | 23 | 5 | 36 | 80 |
| 4. | 0 | Arsenal | 21 | 6 | 32 | 74 |
| 5. | 0 | Aston Villa | 21/22 | 9 | 14 | 67/71 |
Now of course this is all conjecture or speculation on my part. The point of this blog is to point out why 6 points now may only just be enough to prevent us losing fourth place at the death. Much will hinge on the games against our rivals Man U and Chelsea. i really do hope that Everton and Fulham do us a favour. The fact that Man U have a slender lead over Liverpool at the moment is in our favour as that means they have to put out decent squads in between Champions League fixtures. Man U are not invincible as Aston Villa showed at Old Trafford today. But I can’t help thinking that the Arsenal revival will stall as key players think more of their next move, rather than the next game for the Gunners.
I still have doubts about some of the squad though. it is important that Theo Walcott stays fit, he was awesome on Saturday. Oh and well done to Adebayor for practising his finishing. This is much appreciated. Fabregas’s pinpoint passes were just off the pace but by the time we get to Wembley, he will be a great asset to have. The Song Denilson combination was not good, I have to favour Diaby in place of one of those, providing he can stay fit. Aaron Ramsey looked better on his showing, but what Arsenal need at the moment is a higher tempo of play, with more pressure on the ball when defending. unbeaten in 19 games and we are looking like the Arsenal of old.
I remain of the belief that The Arsenal squad this year has been been shown to be weaker than last year’s squad, and the failure to reinforce this squad in the summer with the expected departure of Toure and Adebayor will be criminal in my book. Lets see the colour of Stan Kroenke’s money and lets buy three decent world class players this summer. A DCM, A CB and a STRIKER, in addition please buy Wayne Hennessey of Wolves before they get promoted? Do we have ambition? Are we the ARSENAL? Fourth place three seasons running is quite enough… lets get back to NUMBER ONE!