Thursday, 24 May 2012

FTK Blog: The real class will remain with the top three.

 championsleague1 

The Premier league is fast becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. The fact that so many clubs have lived beyond their means is manifest by the three tiered nature of the league. The mighty top four, the mediocre Europa league places and middle section with finally the basement drop zone for relegation. The spread of points can mean that any side putting together two wins can elevate themselves by sometimes as much as ten places up the league. Yet something is emerging which will destroy the very product that has become a world leader. If you listen to those responsible for marketing the premier league they will insist that this an exciting league where they claim the appeal is that almost everyone can beat anyone else. But looking at the stats, this is more smoke and mirrors than reality.

So is the league becoming more competitive? I would argue not. The top teams still only lose around five or six games a season. The middle ranking teams lose considerably more. What has changed is the greater inconsistency of this middle layer that gives the impression of teams getting closer. Why is this? The fact is that negative tactics have brought about a siege mentality. In a results driven business where the bottom line is funded by a vast debt mountain so that even the parachute payments upon exiting this elite club may not be enough to prevent administration. Chairmen scramble to retain their place at the Premiership table and what is Mr Richard Scudamore’s answer? Instead of grasping the nettle, and forcing clubs to be more prudent and live within their means, The league have produced yet another reason for going into more debt. 

The Champions league pre-qualifying fourth place is the carrot currently being dangled in front of the clubs. 14 of the 20 clubs are in favour. The Top four unsurprisingly are against, with two outliers. If the scheme is passed then the fourth place scramble next season will get ever more intense. Chasing the dream of the Champions League attracts agents, hefty player salaries, but not good attractive football. The likes of Tottenham and Everton in a gruelling play off will add more money to the Premier League coffers, and extend the season still further putting a strain on clubs in terms of injuries. But will it produce better and more attractive football? No way. Wake up and smell the coffee guys. What has also been conviently ignored in this grand scheme are the costs for the long suffering cash cow called the football supporter. I am convinced that not only is this proposal ill conceived, but as a result it will end up in tears for the Premier league as more teams plunge themselves into ever more unsustainable debts. Remember if Platini and UEFA get their way, it is likely that the incumbents of the fourth place will be disqualified from the champions league on financial grounds anyway.

The so called “Premier league product” will suffer too. Imagine the scenarios, with more debts, the currently poorly managed clubs will have another excuse to live a dream that will never come true. The spectacle of negative football will increase. The very selling point of the Premier league will go into a steep decline as sterile result after sterile result beckons. This is dumming down at it’s worse and if adopted it will hasten the decline of the Premier League. Broadcasters want big name players, top skills and lots of action. The play offs will result in an over cautious defensive negative approach by clubs in fifth to seventh place. This scheme will not produce an exhilarating adrenaline soaked play off, but rather just a drab extended penalty tournament. The real class will remain with the top three and the true divisions within the league at a stroke will have got even wider.

 

Fabregas the King  ftk@arsenalinsider.com {jcomments on}

GD Star Rating
loading...

Tony aka FTK co founded Arsenalinsider.com in November 2006. often found on the site having a rant about the topic of the day.

  • Not over the hill

    An idiotic scheme to excel the 39th game fiasco! When would the season actually end? When the prelims for the next season’s competetion takes place! When Celtic and Rangers offer more supporters to the table than half the EPL clubs at present, it is kicked out of touch.
    The sooner a European League I and II are set up, the better for both players and supporters.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • GoonerMatt

    When I first read about the ECL Playoffs yesterday I thought that they were a bad idea. But then this is only because the last few seasons we have only managed fourth place, and for us to have another 3 games or a mini end of season league situation would not be good. Then today I think that this could have a place in the season. Look at what the play offs have done for the lower leagues, the games are generally good, there is excitement and tension and something to play for to get into the top 6/7 or 8 depending on the division.

    In the EPL now we have potentially 7 clubs fighting for the top 4 places. in recent years the top two have pulled away and the fight has been for the third and fourth places which we have been able to gain. So in some ways i think it would be a good idea, although the arguments put out by the EPL administrators for the reason of trying to spread the money around a bit more. I suspect that you will still get the same four teams in the ECL. If you look at our results home and away against Spurs, Everton and Villa over the last few years then we would still have held on to fourth place.

    However, in the end this will only increase the divide between those at the top of the middle tier of the premiership and the rest.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • brdgunner

    Great point. I feel we are going to do whatever we can to make the league more ‘fair’ except deal with the defining issue.

    Until clubs are forced to spend what they earn we are always going to be in this position.

    I would recommend clubs being forced to have

    A wage bill of less than 55% of turnover

    And not being allowed to spend more than twice annual profit on new signings.

    This would make the gap between Chelsea, and Man U smaller and open not only more Champions League spots, but, also the title its self.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    I agree with your first point but not with your final. A European league run along the lines of American Football where there are no relegation risks but lots of travelling will mean that the ordinary Gooner will no longer be able to have the chance to enjoy or afford going to see the Arsenal

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    There is a saying that the league never lies. if you have endured a 38 game season, what gives the right to a team perhaps some ten to 15 points adrift to take away your prize?

    The very thought of diving and poor referring decisions deciding a champions league spot fills me with dread…

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Northbanker

    I can really see this new scheme failing miserably.
    With 2 or 3 games to go the teams sitting 6th and 7th will be going flat out to remain in those positions. But as it doesn’t matter if you finish 4th or 7th then the 2 teams above them (already safe) aren’t going to try very hard. I can see them putting out squad teams for the last couple of matches to keep their best team fresh for the playoffs.
    This could also have a major bearing on relegation issues. We’ve already seen the reaction to Mick McCarthy’s reserve team against Utd. That will be nothing by contrast if a team gets relegated because a team in 4th place throws a game to keep their best players fresh.
    Champions League should imo be for champions only.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Excellent points well made brdgunner :-)

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    I too am old fashioned and believe that the Champions league should be for Champions and Runners up and the premier domestic cup competition. But money talks and the Broadcasters want to see prime fixtures with the best players in the best stadiums…

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Not over the hill

    My point is that television is going to dictate the future of soccer. Already some clubs are foreseeing this to be the way forward. Some clubs already live stream games, why do supporters ALL have to travel to away games?? The pony and trap have gone with the motor car. The weekly, monthly visit to the town on market day have vanished for suburbanites. Harlem Globe Troters anyone!

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TJ14

    Nice article FTK and valid points. On the issue around finances, it is clear that this scheme will not share the wealth, but will involve 3/4 more clubs spending beyond their means to try and break into the Top 7 places. This is a recipe for financial disaster.

    I heard somewhere last week, that the solution could be for the Premier League to put 50% of the clubs TV revenue entitlement into a Trust Fund, which could only be used for youth development, stadium development, or training facilities. basically the money has to go into the club and not into players pockets.

    This sounds like a very good idea and if done properly, may stabilise things.

    And as an Arsenal fan, I would suggest that we are already doing this so we wouldn’t have to adapt. :-)

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • DJ Dragonfly

    If given the choice FTK, would you be happy if Arsenal:

    a)Finished 2nd or 3rd in the Premiership with no trophies.

    b)Finished 4th in the Premiership and win the Champions League

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • John in Norfolk

    This is a possibility without the play-offs.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • John in Norfolk

    As I said in my post yesterday, this “play-off” idea is just a moneymaking scam to make up for the lost revenue from the so called 39th game that was recently kicked into touch.

    One thing to consider, it is not written in stone that The Premier League will always have four places in the Champions League. With Liverpool not qualifying for the knockout stages that fourth place is looking less sure for next season.

    One thing you can be certain of is that the FA will support the idea, they must be rubbing their hands together at the thought of a week long tournament at White Elephant Wembley, that is, if Brent Council will allow the extra matches to go ahead.

    The one certainty is that the eventual cost will fall upon the usual cash cow the football fans.

    I for one am against the whole idea.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • db10

    I still don’t know whether the 3rd place finisher this year has to go through qualifying for next years champs league??

    Perhaps introducing a more competitive qualifying to the CL would be a better solution for the whole of europe because leagues accross europe all have certain teams dominating, not just England.

    However I’m not sure why people want to try to make everything more even because, firstly money comes in from people wanting to watch the best teams play and secondly, if the rules are changed to limit the current big clubs from winning everything then these conditions will favour other (or maybe the same) clubs and these will be the new big clubs.

    The issue should be around the sustainability of the clubs and not about making the league closer or more exciting or giving lower clubs more of a chance. The debate is currently confusing these two very separate issues bceause as pointed out by ftk, trying to make the league more even will probably make even more of the mid-table teams spend beyind their means.

    UEFA must introduce rules to stop ridiculous over spending first, before the issue of the competitiveness of the leagues is looked at. And there are no guarentees that any new system will help make the league more competitive anyway (but in general saying something won’t work is not a good reason not to try it).

    the trouble with having only the champions in the champions league is that this can become like the separate euro league that we don’t want to see if the same teams are getting into it (and then getting more money from it) then this will make the leagues around europe even less competitive than before.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TJ14

    3rd goes straight into group stages db10.

    As for just the champions in the Champs League, I think you would find that the UEFA Cup would then be alot stronger.

    You could have Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Juventus, AC Milan, Valencia, Real Madrid, Seville, Lyon, Marseille, Werder Bremen in the 2nd tier competition.

    In the Champs League, you would maybe have Barca, Man Utd, Wolfsburg, PSV, Inter and Bordeaux, then the Greeks, Russians, Turks, Swedes, Swiss etc etc.

    I know which one I would rather watch.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TJ14

    Bit of a strange one DJ???? 4th and Champs League is pretty obvious answer. And if you win Champs League, you are in it next season regardless of where you finish.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Imagine if one of the big four failed to secure Champions league and decided to do a separate deal on broadcasting????

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Agreed TJ
    The problem for us, is that the Premier league refuse to do what is right, so until UEFA step in and disqualify teams, Arsenal will remain alone on its moral high ground…

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Trust you to play devil’s advocate!

    i would clearly want to win the Champions league of course…

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    precisely J.I.N!

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    But that was not the case TJ14, re Liverpool’s case after Istanbul.

    The Winners of the Champions league were NOT guaranteed participation in the following years competition unless decreed by the Domestic League. Now we have changed the rules I suppose that scenario will never happen.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Well said

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Places 1-3 go through to group stages, and 4th pre-qualify

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • db10

    ok thanks. oh yeah it was the same last time. only we had to qualify.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Clock End Mick

    At the end of the day the fans will dictate what games they will spend their hard erned money on. To watch a qualifiying game to compete in the CL or to watch the group matches. I no I wouldent waist my money going to Wembley. With crowds down all over the country, football is coming verry near to braking the cammels back

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Durham Gooner

    I’d leave the Champions League as it is but have no groups and a completely unseeded knock out tournament.
    Would be fantastic. Ok you’d get AC Milan v Barcelona and FC Cluj v BATE Borisov but so be it!
    That would help spread the wealth as “weaker” teams would have a better chance to advance. And every draw would be genuinely exciting.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TJ14

    What a surprise. Martin O’Neill is in favour of the play offs. It is because his bunch of long ball merchants arent ever going to finish 4th.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • db10

    david moyes likes the idea too.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Mexican Gunner

    I know my idea will never happen but I think at this moment (and since 2 or 3 years ago) the Premier League is the most competitive in the world SO why not the Top 4 are guaranteed in the Champions League and the 5th play against the 4th of Spain?

    Spanish La Liga in not competitive anymorel! only 2 teams fighting for the title, so UEFA should take off one place for Spain and only the Top 3 of Spain are guaranteed on the CL and the 4th (Sevilla, Depor, etc) wil have to play against the 5th from England (Liverpool, Villa or Spuddies).

    And Im sure that the 5th from England is better than the 4th from Spain.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • db10

    i think 5 teams from one country is a bit too much. but something similar to your suggestion almost happened last year. initially we were going to be able to be drawn agianst fourth place from italy or spain or 3rd from germany but at the last moment they made the qualifying seeded so that couldn’t happen.

    although UEFA’s reason for doing this was to try and get more champions from smaller leagues in the competition, whereas i think yours is to make the champions league have more better teams.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Too true Mick!

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    The Broadcasters would object to Real Madrid getting knocked out.

    Lets not beat about the bush, there are aspects of the draw that makes one wonder….mmmm

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Villa at least have won the European Cup

    admittedly in 1982…lol

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    Great idea Mexican, but UEFA are scared of the Spanish might.

    the only FA to be accused of Racism… Outcome? a pitiful fine

    the main clubs who tap up other countries best players with Impunity…
    Punishment —ZERO SANCTIONS

    Its a joke1

    Come on OM LYON beat the Galacticos…lol

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Fabregas_The_King

    DB10
    really bad news that Everton can’t field a full strength team against Yanited.

    AC Milan should have beaten them last night 7-3…lol

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Mexican Gunner

    Oh I didnt knew that form last year, interesting.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...