Whatever the result of tonight’s final Champions League group games we’re absolutely guaranteed at least one more European tie this season. With Partizan Belgrade locked into fourth place the lowest we can finish in Group H is third. This would mean a place in the Europa League Round of 32 draw on Friday in Switzerland at UEFA HQ in Nyon near Geneva.
Far more likely is that we’ll finish second in the group and go into the Champions League round of sixteen draw on Friday. The truth is tonight shouldn’t matter. After three wins on the spin in the first three group games we should have qualified top of the group with at least one game to spare. A draw between Shakhtar Donetsk and SC Braga in the Donbass Arena tonight would mean we’d need at a point against Partizan Belgrade to ensure a second place finish on our better head to head record against SC Braga. If Shakhtar win then we’ll go through second no matter what our result.
In the unlikely event of SC Braga winning in Ukraine we’d need to win too to go through top of the group on the head to head results between the three teams who would finish on twelve points. The results between the three teams would give each club six points. SC Braga would finish third on goal difference with us top and Shakhtar second.
That doesn’t seem very likely though. Far more likely is wins for both us and Shakhtar which would see us finish second in a group in which we ought to have walked home as winners if we’d maintained concentration and focus. What we need to do tonight is to focus on winning. Any win will automatically qualify us no matter what happens in the other game. We’re still in charge of our own destiny in the competition which is something for which to be thankful given our miserable performances in the last two outings in Braga and Donetsk.
Of the groups completed last night or where the winners have already been decided, Manchester United, Chelsea and Spurs have finished top of their groups so we couldn’t get them if we end up in second place in our group after tonight. We could get Schalke 04, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Barcelona. First however we have to qualify. We shouldn’t be treating that as a sure thing. We’ve learned where that gets us.
Our miserable luck with injuries continues with Thomas Vermaelen highly unlikely to return until well into the New Year and Laurent Koscielny picking up a concussion (which contributed to the visitors’ equaliser) on Saturday against Fulham at the Grove. At least we managed the three points which ended up taking us top of the League thanks to Manchester United’s game at Blackpool being called off due to the weather. Whether we’re still top come May is another issue entirely. I’d love to be proved wrong but I don’t think so given our at times shockingly bad team defending and inadequate goalkeeping. Nobody will be more delighted to be proved completely wrong than me.
I’m afraid Łukasz Fabiański got away with another mad flap at a ball in the air into the box on Saturday against The Cottagers. Fortunately he got away with it courtesy of a clearance off the line. I’m now firmly convinced that he’s not good enough to be a permanent solution for us. Again, I’d love him to ram those words right down my throat. I take no pleasure from writing them. One goalie we won’t be signing is Fulham’s Mark Schwarzer who has signed a two year contract extension at Fulham.
Let’s not make the goalies the focus of our ire however. Our defensive problems are more profound than that. We are a better side than we were last season, especially being less prone to being run over physically than we were. We’re still too easily opened up when not in possession however. This issue has to be addressed if we’re to challenge for the top honours.
For the moment though I’ll settle for three points against Partizan Belgrade tonight. In another worrying sign tickets still remain for the game this evening. I don’t know how many but it shows that fans just don’t have the money at the moment. I hope the board bears that in mind when they decide on next season’s prices in a couple of months. We’re already facing a 2.5% increase in January in matchday prices due to the VAT increase. With unemployment rising and widespread pay freezes for all too many now isn’t the time to be imposing increases. The reverse in fact.
Keep the faith!
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