Chris Sutton says the result of Newcastle vs Arsenal will be decided by one man

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Arsenal take on Newcastle United at St. James’ Park on Sunday afternoon, and Chris Sutton has made his prediction ahead of the clash.

The Gunners have lost each of their last three visits to the north-east, and will be desperate to stop this negative trend with three points this time around.

Mikel Arteta’s team were held by Manchester City on Sunday, meaning they’re now five points adrift of Premier League leaders Liverpool and thus cannot afford to lose on Tyneside.

Meanwhile, Eddie Howe’s side have won just once so far in the league this season, although they have only conceded three goals across five matches.

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Chris Sutton backs Arsenal to beat Newcastle on Sunday

Arsenal beat Newcastle 1-0 at the Emirates in May, although this ended a run of three straight defeats at the hands of Howe’s outfit.

The Gunners have notoriously struggled against the physically robust Magpies, and will need to perform significantly better than they have done previously at St. James’ Park to secure the points on Sunday.

Arteta will be without Noni Madueke, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus and potentially Piero Hincapie for the trip to the north-east, while Newcastle’s list of absentees includes Jacob Ramsey, Yoane Wissa and Fabian Schar.

Writing for BBC Sport, former Blackburn Rovers striker Chris Sutton claimed the outcome of Sunday’s showdown will be determined entirely by Arteta’s approach, but he believes the Gunners will overcome the Tynesiders.

“This has become a bit of a grudge match since Newcastle’s controversial win at St James’ Park in 2023,” Sutton wrote.

“Arsenal have lost on their past three visits, but even a draw might not help them much this time, because they cannot afford to fall any further behind Liverpool at the top of the table.

“So, Mikel Arteta really needs a win, but how will he approach this? Does he regard Newcastle as a top side and, if so, will he play his robust midfield trio again in the middle of the park?

“He seems to be quite negative and defensive in games like this, and I think it is a legitimate question to ask if Arsenal can win the Premier League by being that cautious.

“Arteta really needs to go for it more. I am finding Newcastle difficult to predict because they do not score many goals, but they are still hard to beat.

“There are a few reasons why I am backing Arsenal – Bukayo Saka is fit again and, if [Eberechi] Eze starts as well, they will carry a real threat. They have got Gabriel Martinelli too – but what happens here is really down to Arteta.”

Arsenal and Newcastle statistical comparison

While the season is still in its early days and the sample size of data isn’t enormous, there are still some interesting observations that can be made when comparing Arsenal and Newcastle.

The numbers clearly indicate that Newcastle have been one of the best defensive teams in the league so far, but have struggled offensively.

The Magpies have faced the fewest shots and conceded the fewest expected goals, with Arsenal not far behind them in these metrics.

However, Eddie Howe’s team are getting into the opposition box with average frequency, while they’re not generating the quality or quantity of chances they’d like.

Arsenal aren’t quite the best attacking team in the league, but their metrics in the offensive areas are more positive than perhaps the narratives would suggest.