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Supercomputer now ranks Arsenal’s Champions League qualification chances after Sporting CP win

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Arsenal are now beyond the halfway stage of their Champions League league phase campaign, with a mixture of results so far.

The new Champions League format has wreaked havoc early on, with surprises including PSG outside the qualification places and Real Madrid hovering dangerously close to falling out too.

Fortunately for Mikel Arteta, it hasn’t been quite as dramatic as three wins, one draw and one defeat leaves the side seventh in the table.

Arsenal will be hoping that they keep their place in that top-eight, which would guarantee a place in the round of 16 and stops the addition of an extra play-off game in an already busy schedule.

There are still three games to go in the Champions League before then, which includes clashes with AS Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb and Girona for the Gunners.

With those games remaining and a whole chunk of other ties likely to impact the table, a supercomputer has already looked at the possible outcome.

Sporting Clube de Portugal v Arsenal FC - UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase MD5
Photo by Carlos Rodrigues/Getty Images

Where Arsenal can finish in the Champions League table

With three games to go, Arsenal will feel that a top-eight finish is just in sight, with a few more wins likely to get them over the line.

Those chances have since been ranked by OPTA’s Supercomputer, which take a look at the percentage chance of any given outcome.

It shows that the Gunners are most likely to end up on 19 points (27.1%), which would mean taking nine points from the last three games.

Behind that is 17 points (23.9%) and 16 points (21.8%), while anything fewer than two wins in three is rated low.

In terms of the positions, there is a relatively even spread for where Arsenal could end up, though a top-eight finish is most likely (ninth is ranked at 5.1% and even lower is ranked under 4%).

Third is believed to have the best chance, ranked at 12.1%, while second, fourth, fifth and sixth are all around the nine-to-ten percent mark.

It suggests a real chance to kick on and impress in the competition moving forward.

Sporting Clube de Portugal v Arsenal FC - UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase MD5
Photo by Gualter Fatia/Getty Images

Arsenal’s could earn fixture schedule break

If there’s one thing Arsenal don’t need, it’s more fixtures during a time when they have been ravaged by injuries and general fatigue.

The Gunners have put themselves in a position to earn some much-needed respite in the early weeks of February in the Champions League.

Any team finishing outside the top-eight but in the top-25 will have to take part in a two-legged play-off match.

These are scheduled for 11/12 of February and 18/19 of February in 2025, marking a busy part of the season.

One of those comes after a clash with Manchester City and before that of Leicester City, demonstrating the tough nature of the schedule.

The second leg would be before West Ham at home and quite frankly, the extra rest and immediate progression would help Arsenal in their bid for trophies this season.