Mikel Arteta has a tactical decision to make against Burnley that could prove decisive in the title race.
Arsenal need two wins from their final two games to be crowned Premier League champions. Simple enough.
Except there is also a scenario — uncomfortable, slightly nauseating to think about, but real — where the title comes down to goal difference.
As things stand, Manchester City hold a marginal advantage in that department: +43 to Arsenal’s +42.
👀 Fill in the blank: Arsenal are taking _ points from the final two Premier League matches…
Should Arsenal slip up and draw one of their final two fixtures, and City win both of theirs, that is the measure that decides it.
A single goal could be the difference between lifting the trophy and what would be, let’s be honest, a fairly catastrophic way to not win a football competition.
Next up for Arsenal are Burnley on Monday night, who are already relegated and have conceded a league-high 73 goals this season.
If ever there was a fixture designed by the football gods specifically for Arsenal to do something about their goal difference, it is this one. The opportunity is right there.
Arteta should start Odegaard in a deeper role against Burnley
According to recent data, Martin Odegaard is the second best through-passer in the Premier League this season.
He plays through passes at a higher rate than anyone else in the division, bar one. Eberechi Eze is the best.
Playing them both centrally, with Declan Rice as the defensive anchor behind them, gives Arsenal two elite creative forces operating in tandem, free to interchange and unpick defensive shape at will.
That is essentially an unsolvable problem for Burnley.
The key is Odegaard dropping into a deeper number eight role, akin to the Bernardo Silva template at Manchester City, if you want a reference point.
More touches, more tempo, passes spraying into the channels, the kind of suffocating positional control that makes Arsenal almost impossible to play against when everything clicks.
Tell us, will Martin Odegaard’s return win Arsenal the league?
Eze at ten, where he has been most dangerous, linking with Viktor Gyokeres who has visibly improved in recent weeks.
Leandro Trossard is in the sort of form that makes him impossible to leave out, and Bukayo Saka on the right picks himself.
Unbelievably, Arteta has only fielded a team with Saka, Odegaard, and Eze all starting together once this season.
At left back, with Riccardo Calafiori’s fitness in doubt, Myles Lewis-Skelly could shift back there.
Piero Hincapie is an excellent defender, but doesn’t quite offer the same technical quality in possession as his counterparts. And this is not the night for that particular compromise. He’ll be needed in Budapest.
This is a home game against a relegated team that have conceded 73 goals. Arsenal should win it comfortably and they should win it by enough.
Two wins seal the title regardless. But if goal difference ends up mattering on the final day at Selhurst Park — and it might, it really might — Arsenal will want to know they did absolutely everything they could on Monday night.
It is right in front of them.
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