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Supercomputer reveals Arsenal’s chances of beating Real Madrid and winning the Champions League this season

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Arsenal will face Real Madrid in the quarter-final of the Champions League.

The Gunners host the European champions at the Emirates the 8th of April, before travelling to the Spanish capital for the second-leg on the 17th.

PSV Eindhoven were thrashed 9-3 on aggregate by the North Londoners in the last round, and thus, Mikel Arteta’s side will be confident that they can enjoy a deep run in the competition.

If Arsenal are able to negotiate their way past Real Madrid, then they’ll face either Paris Saint-Germain or Aston Villa in the last four, where they’ll fight for a chance to take part in the final in Munich in May.

Arsenal FC Training Session And Press Conference - UEFA Champions League 2024/25 Round of 16 Second Leg
Photo by David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images

Supercomputer predicts Arsenal’s Champions League chances

Joe Cole and Martin Keown believe Arsenal can beat Real Madrid over two legs, and they aren’t the only ones that hold this belief.

Opta’s supercomputer deems Arsenal favourites in their clash with Los Blancos, giving the Gunners a 53% chance of progressing to the semi-final.

Perhaps more pertinently, the computer reckons Arsenal are the third favourites in the competition to go all the way and lift the trophy in May.

Opta Analyst has Arteta’s team’s chances of winning the Champions League at 16.8%, behind just Barcelona (20.4%) and PSG (19.3%).

In fact, Real Madrid rank as fifth favourites, behind Inter Milan, while Unai Emery’s Villa are the second least favoured side to win the tournament, with just a 2% chance.

Opta’s Tournament Predictions
TeamSemi-Final chancesFinal chancesWinner chances
Barcelona80%41.5%20.4%
PSG72.2%36%19.3%
Arsenal52.8%30.2%16.8%
Inter Milan57.3%32.7%16.4%
Real Madrid47.2%26%13.6%
Bayern Munich42.7%21.3%9.7%
Aston Villa27.9%7.7%2.8%
Borussia Dortmund20%4.5%1%
All Statistics via Opta Analyst – correct as of 14/03/2025

Mikel Arteta responds to supercomputer’s Champions League predictions

Gabriel Magalhaes has warned Arteta that Arsenal have to focus on negating Vinicius Junior to overcome Real Madrid, although the Gunners will have a lot more to think about than just the Brazilian winger.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side boasts an embarrassment of riches, and thus Arsenal’s success in Europe’s elite competition this season will be predicated on their ability to nullify an array of talented attackers.

However, as the supercomputer suggests, Arsenal shouldn’t be too afraid of the Spanish giants and should instead by excited about competing in such a huge clash.

That’s the approach Arteta, who was asked about the supercomputer’s predictions in his press conference on Friday afternoon, appears to have taken.

“Well it’s a fascinating draw,” the Arsenal boss said.

“We’re going to play against the club with the biggest history in the competition and we’re very excited to play against them, but before that we have three big matches in the Premier League.”

A diplomatic answer from the tactician, but one that clearly indicates that he’s embracing the challenge that faces his team next month.