Arsenal are looking to make a move for Morgan Rogers this summer.
It’s no secret that Rogers is a key target for Arsenal, and with Aston Villa apparently on the verge of some financial restraints amid the incoming Squad Cost Ratio (SCR) rules, the Gunners were hoping to be able to get a deal done on the cheap.
However, this is a football transfer market, and things can change very quickly.
Amadou Onana has just injured his ACL, and while an injury to a key player is always a blow, there has been some speculation online that this could help Villa keep Rogers.
Indeed, with FIFA compensating wages for injured players, some fans have speculated that due to the new rules being around ‘squad cost ratio’ rather than ‘profit and sustainability’ getting Onana’s wages ‘off the books’ in a roundabout way could help Villa keep hold of Rogers.
However, according to football finance expert Adam Williams, that doesn’t appear to be the case.
Morgan Rogers to Arsenal – yes or no? Tell us why in one sentence!
How Amadou Onana’s injury could affect Morgan Rogers deal
Williams told Arsenal Insider how the FIFA compensation works and whether this could actually help Villa keep hold of Rogers.
By the sounds of it, Onana’s injury will provide a bit of respite for Villa, but it won’t fundamentally affect how their SCR situation is calculated and the sale of Rogers may still be necessary.
“Compensation from FIFA is capped at €7.5m per player per year, though the exact final amount in sterling varies depending on the euro exchange rate. At current rates, that’s £6.4m,” Williams said.
“Looking at Villa’s wage bill of £273m at the last count and the structure of their squad, you can fairly confidently deduce that Onana’s average weekly wage is around £175,000 to £200,000. Based on that, you might assume that Villa would get the full £6.4m allowance over the course of the seven, eight or nine months he is likely to be out. However, that £175-200,000 will probably be made up of, say, 30 per cent variable pay – that’s bonuses, image rights and so on. FIFA doesn’t cover those.
“On top of that, Villa still have to pay employer National Insurance contributions, which are 15 per cent. What’s more, the payments don’t start until 28 days after the injury, and the final daily rate could actually shrink if FIFA’s total commitments under the Club Protection Programme exceeds €80m, which is very possible. After you’ve carved those out, FIFA’s compensation will probably cover less than half of Onana’s costs to Villa.
“Let’s say it’s £4m. We are still awaiting the fine print of the new Premier League SCR system, but I’m going to presume that FIFA compensation will count as revenue under the rules. So, yes, that £4m is better than nothing. But it certainly isn’t going to move mountains for Villa in terms of their ability to keep hold of Rogers.
“They are going to need £100m-plus in player sale profits to give themselves any chance of complying with UEFA’s SCR limit of 70 per cent, and it could potentially be significantly higher than that. If you repeatedly breach under UEFA’s rules, you risk a ban from European competition. They’re not at that point yet and, as long as they stay within the terms of their settlement agreement, the punishments will be strictly financial rather than sporting, but they are going to need to make pretty deep adjustments all the same.
“Rogers, would be pure profit, albeit with that profit contributing to a three-year average as opposed to eliminating the deficit in one swoop, like the Grealish sale did a few years back under PSR. There’s the sell-on clause, too. Also, if Villa feel they need to use the transfer or loan market to get a stand-in for Onana, any financial advantage from FIFA is wiped out instantly anyway.”
Rogers will seemingly still be on the market this summer, and if anything, Onana’s injury may accelerate a move away. After all, Villa may well need to go out and sign a midfield replacement now.
It’s often difficult to figure out what financial rules mean, but, by the sounds of things, the picture hasn’t changed too much here.
Receive a digest of our best Arsenal content each week direct to your mailbox
