Arsenal face a real threat of losing Ethan Nwaneri as a free agent in the next 12 months as pressure builds over his future.
The Hale End academy star has made quite the impression in the past year, breaking into the senior side and making himself a regular in the squad.
That is just the start for Ethan Nwaneri, who is tipped to reach the very top, but there is some growing doubt that it will be at Arsenal.
With one year left on Nwaneri’s contract, there have been question marks over whether he will sign an extension.
Any deal that’s left unsigned leaves Arsenal in a vulnerable position, as their rivals start to sniff out a potential opportunity.
Chelsea have been linked with Nwaneri, with the London club looking to make quite the statement with a high-profile swoop.
It could be a disaster for Arsenal, one that would come with a record-breaking compensation package to soften the blow only slightly.
- GET TO KNOW ETHAN NWANERI: Everything you need to know about Ethan Nwaneri including age, height and Arsenal record
Ethan Nwaneri would break the record for compensation in Arsenal transfer to Chelsea
As Arsenal step up their talks with Nwaneri over a new contract, there is still a real risk of losing the star at the end of his contract.
While that would mean losing him as a free agent, the Gunners would be due a fee from Chelsea if he were to join them next summer.
That’s due to compensation rules relating to academy players signing professional contracts, set out by the FA.
Finance expert Adam Williams explained the situation as he told Arsenal Insider: “While it would obviously be a disaster to lose a player of Nwaneri’s promise for free, it would be better for Arsenal financially if it were another Premier League club that he ended up at.
“If he went overseas, he would only be covered by FIFA’s Training Compensation scheme. That doesn’t reflect the player’s market value – instead, it’s based on the costs involved with developing the player. So you’re probably talking less than £1 million.
“If Chelsea were to sign him on a free, however, it would go to a tribunal under the Professional Football Compensation Scheme, otherwise known as PFCC. In this system, if the two clubs can’t reach a settlement independently, a panel will assess the value of the player based on a load of different metrics.
“I think Nwaneri could probably break the record for the biggest compensation fee, which is about £8 million as it stands. That was Danny Ings to Liverpool.
“But you’re not going to get anywhere close to what you might if it were a normal sale. Maybe it would break the eight-figure barrier, but probably not by a significant amount. Tribunal fees can also be structured with add-ons, so the variable pay might be bigger once all is said and done.
“One thing to note is that Chelsea now have to get their house in order because of their having broken UEFA’s FFP rules. Players who are available for less are going to be a lot more attractive to them now.”
It certainly suggests that Arsenal wouldn’t walk away empty-handed, but it wouldn’t be the outcome they would want.
Arsenal need to show clear plan for Ethan Nwaneri progression
As Chelsea circle a move for Nwaneri, it’s clear that they will be able to present a clear plan to him for his development.
The Blues have made a habit of developing talent before moving them on for profit, even with the chaos that has ensued with their transfer spending.
With that in mind, Arsenal will need to show a clear plan for where Nwaneri fits in their own plans for the future.
While the Gunners don’t have quite as clear a philosophy on how the youth fit in, the 18-year-old is clearly good enough to be fighting for places.
Only valuable minutes will help Nwaneri grow, and Arsenal have to show him where they will be available for him.
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