The transfer market has gone bonkers this summer, and Arsenal are feeling it.
Tottenham, off the back of back-to-back 17th-place finishes, have paid £100million for Sandro Tonali and £85million for Mateus Fernandes from a relegated side.
Jan Paul van Hecke, entering the final year of his contract at Brighton, still cost Spurs £52million.
Manchester City spent £116million on Elliot Anderson, the biggest fee ever paid for an English player.
That is the market now.
💰 Bruno Guimaraes is turning 29 in November and has TWO years left on his contract… How much should Arsenal pay to sign him?
Nobody should blame the selling clubs. A player is ultimately worth whatever their club decides they are worth, and in a Premier League awash with television money and global commercial revenue, clubs can afford to demand more for their players.
They can effectively ask for whatever they like and wait until someone pays it, to an extent, of course.
And now the ripple effect of those deals is being felt by Arsenal.
How inflated fees are pricing Arsenal out of their own targets
Elliot Anderson £116million deal set a new benchmark for Premier League midfielders. That benchmark immediately inflated the asking price for Tonali, which Spurs, unlike Arsenal, were willing to match.
Aston Villa watched all of this and decided Morgan Rogers, who Arsenal have pursued all summer, is actually worth £130million. Even Rogers himself thinks that’s steep.
But from Villa’s perspective, why wouldn’t you do this? If Anderson costs £116million, why would Rogers cost less?
PSG have clearly observed the chaos in England from a distance and now Bardley Barcola will cost well above £100million if they sell at all. Julian Alvarez similarly.
🤔 PICK ONE: Would you rather Arsenal signed Bradley Barcola or Morgan Rogers this summer?
Bournemouth are in a position now where they can wave away potential interest in their top players by slapping mammoth price tags on them. They want £90million for Eli Junior Kroupi. £80million for Alex Scott.
The market has gone mad and it’s probably beyond the point of return.
Arsenal may have to accept they will need to overpay for top targets
The reality is that Arsenal may have to pay through the nose for at least one of their primary targets this summer.
Bruno Guimaraes at £65million now looks like good value in this climate, even for a 28-year-old.
Rogers at £130million, however, is extortionate but might be unavoidable if Arsenal truly believe he is the right player.
A few years ago, Premier League dealmakers didn’t know what to do with the riches being afforded to them.
Finding value is harder than ever. Every Premier League club is used to having wealth now, and plenty of them have learnt from their past mistakes.
Many mid-table sides have grown increasingly shrewd in the market too — the likes of Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford, especially.
They’re not in a position where they need to sell, and now act early to tie down their best players. And they’re getting better at replacing them.
They’re also a lot better at taking risks compared to the days of begging at the feet of the heavyweight clubs for some spare change.
Fortunately, Arsenal are in a strong position financially, thanks to their performances both domestically and in Europe in recent seasons.
As Premier League champions, they also have plenty of leverage and pull power. But the margin for error is smaller now.
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