Arsenal could spend another ‘£500m’ in January without breaching PSR – but there’s a catch

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Arsenal could execute a high-spending window in the January transfer market, Arsenal Insider’s finance expert Adam Williams understands.

Andrea Berta pulled off an exceptional summer transfer window at Arsenal, welcoming eight new players to bolster Mikel Arteta’s squad.

Now that there’s evidence to prove that spending big was essential in the summer, some will naturally wonder what the January window could have in store for the Gunners.

Though we are only 11 games into the Premier League season, there’s already been talk about one player Arsenal could sign, and that’s Bournemouth winger Antoine Semenyo.

• READ MORE: Ranking all eight Arsenal summer transfer signings from Viktor Gyokeres to Eberechi Eze

Arsenal could afford to sign Antoine Semenyo and many other players in the January transfer window 

Sources close to Arsenal Insider understand that Arsenal are keeping tabs on Semenyo ahead of the January window.

After the news broke that the winger is protected by a £65m release clause at Bournemouth, the question was immediately asked as to whether the Gunners could afford to pay the Cherries such a fee for his services this winter.

To get the lowdown on what Arsenal’s spending capacity is in the winter with financial rules in mind, Arsenal Insider sought the insight of finance expert, Adam Williams. 

“From a PSR perspective, Arsenal have lots of headroom. PSR is based on a club’s profit or loss: their bottom line. Arsenal can lose up to £105m over a rolling three-year period, so we’re looking at the 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons to work out their current PSR position.

“They lost £18m in 2023-24, but we won’t have the accounts for 2024-25 yet. Clearly, we won’t have the figures for 2025-26 either until long after the season has finished. However, I expect them to post a decent profit once they release their 2024-25 accounts, so they’ll pretty much be at a break-even point financially in the first two years of this three-year assessment window.”

In the case of Arsenal showing interest in Semenyo, Williams stated that there’s ‘nothing’ in the Premier League rule book that could stop the Gunners from signing the Ghanaian this winter.

“Once you add back allowable spending like academy, infrastructure and investment in the Women’s team, they can afford to lose much more than £105m this season and still comply with PSR, so there’s nothing in the Premier League’s rules that will stop them from signing Semenyo for £65m.”

To further elaborate on a possible deal for Semenyo, Williams explained that Arsenal could spend as much as £500m in January without PSR repercussions.

“Of that £65m, only around £7m is going to hit the bottom line this season, assuming he signs a four-and-a-half-year deal – that’s because of how clubs amortise player transfer fees for accountancy purposes.

“From a PSR perspective, Arsenal could spend another £500m worth of players in January and they would still be fine. They aren’t going to do that, obviously, because it would jeopardise their PSR position in the future assessment windows, but hopefully that gives you a sense of what’s possible.”

Arsenal are limited by UEFA’s financial rules

With a table-topping net spend of £257m in the summer, some might be surprised to understand the lengths that Arsenal could further spend in January.

There is, however, a catch.

While the Premier League’s PSR restrictions are not a concern for Arsenal, UEFA’s rulings differ quite significantly.

“Where Arsenal are more limited is under UEFA’s rules – and particularly their Squad Cost Ratio rule. Under this system, they aren’t allowed to spend any more than 70 per cent of revenue plus a three-year average of player sale profits on first team wages and transfer costs.

“This is a calendar-year test too, so it’s a bit trickier to work out. But I think they must be quite close to the limit in 2025. That’s a view that is shared by some people in the club, too.”

Williams set the scene about the challenges that a high-spending winter could present Arsenal, but when it comes to the case of whether or not to sign Semenyo, the Gunners’ stance could be less cautious.

“If Semenyo joins, he will be signing in 2026, so it won’t make a difference to the 2025 calculation, but Arsenal will be mindful of the Squad Cost Ratio rule,” Williams said.

“I don’t think this would prevent them from doing a deal by any means, but that will be the chief consideration when they are making moves in the transfer and wage markets, rather than PSR.”

Arsenal are incredibly well-run when it comes to balancing finances, with the state of play heading into the winter market now clear.