Arsenal’s new Premier League title chances revealed following Sunderland draw

Add as preferred source on Google

Arsenal’s hopes of winning the Premier League title were dealt a blow on Saturday evening when they were held to a draw by Sunderland.

Brian Brobbey hooked the ball past David Raya in the 94th minute at the Stadium of Light to rescue a point for the Black Cats in the dying embers.

Meanwhile, Manchester City beat Liverpool at the Etihad on Sunday afternoon, to close the gap with the Gunners to just four points.

This was certainly a significant weekend in the title race, and it’ll have felt like a detrimental blip for Mikel Arteta and his players.

• READ MORE: Confirmed Arsenal summer 2025 transfer ins and outs, signings and done deals

Arsenal’s title chances only dropped by 2% after Sunderland draw

While the manner in which Arsenal dropped points will be difficult for Arteta’s squad to take, the result hasn’t actually impacted their chances of winning the title all that much.

Wayne Rooney still thinks Arsenal will win the league, and the scientific models support this belief.

According to Scott Willis on X, Arsenal’s title odds only dropped from 78% to 76% over the weekend. This drop being so minimal is largely a result of Liverpool’s chances decreasing significantly with their defeat in Manchester.

The Merseysiders had had a 9% chance of lifting the piece of silverware in May, but their chances are now rated at just 5%. Meanwhile, City’s prospects have risen from 13% to 18%.

Willis’ model is largely driven by expected goals, which tends to be a very predictive metric.

Arsenal currently boast the best expected goals difference in the Premier League, and by quite some distance. This, combined with the fact that Arteta’s team already have a points advantage, makes the Gunners overwhelming favourites for the title.

Arsenal’s xG difference compared to the rest of the Premier League

The underlying numbers make for very promising reading for Arsenal, and indicate that the Gunners are likely to pull away from the rest of the pack if they keep performing as they are.

While the likes of Manchester City, Chelsea and Crystal Palace have marginally outperformed Arsenal offensively, the North London outfit have by far the best defence, and this gives them the best metrics in the league.

Interestingly, Liverpool only have the fifth best xG difference in the league, demonstrating why the Gunners hardly even need to worry about Arne Slot’s men at this point.

Clearly, City are the only team in the same bracket as Arsenal and the only team that can feasibly fend them off for the title.

However, even the Sky Blue outfit are a level below Arteta’s side. These numbers provide some timely context to Arsenal fans panicking after the draw on Wearside.