Who Arsenal are most likely to sell between Jakub Kiwior and Oleksandr Zinchenko amid PSR verdict

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Arsenal are set to sell several players this summer, and room needs to be cleared at left-back ahead of the anticipated arrival of Riccardo Calafiori.

Arsenal already have Takehiro Tomiyasu, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Jurrien Timber and Jakub Kiwior available at left-back, with Kieran Tierney and Nuno Tavares also spending last season out on loan.

A deal appears to be edging closer for Bologna defender Calafiori, who can play at centre-back or left-back, and it is anticipated that he will feature as an inverted fullback.

Kiwior is the subject of interest from AC Milan, Juventus and Napoli, whilst Zinchenko has just two years remaining on his deal.

It was recently reported that one, if not both defenders could end up leaving Arsenal this summer, and fans have questioned which player to sell.

Aside from their tactical fit and performances last season, finances could be key if a decision has to be made between either player.

We spoke to TBR Football finance expert Adam Williams, who explained how the transfer fees and wages of both players could determine which one Arsenal may prefer to sell in terms of profit and sustainability (PSR) rules.

Should Arsenal sell Oleksandr Zinchenko or Jakub Kiwior?

Williams has now explained that a player’s ‘book value’ will determine how much of a profit the club makes on a sale in terms of PSR.

“In terms of PSR, profit on player sales is offset against their book value,” he stated.

“A player’s book value is determined by the fee they were signed for and the length remaining on their contract.

“Zinchenko was signed for £32m in 2022 on a four-year deal. He’s two years into that deal, so his book value will be £16m.

“Any fee they receive will be offset against his book value. If they get £32m for him, for example, that will be registered as a £16m profit as far as their PSR calculation is concerned.

“Kiwior was signed for £20m in January 2023 and is 18 months into a four-and-a-half-year deal, so his book value will currently be about £13.5m.”

With Serie A interest in Kiwior, and few rumours linking Zinchenko anywhere, the determining factor is likely to be the level of offer made for either player.

“Ultimately, which player might be better to sell from a financial perspective depends on how much the market is willing to pay for them,” Williams added.

“Zinchenko’s annual salary is higher by almost £5m, so there is that to take into account too.”

How potential Arsenal signing of Riccardo Calafiori could be financial masterstroke

Calafiori’s fee is expected to be around the £43m mark, and if Kiwior or Zinchenko leave, even for a lower amount, this could be a financial masterstroke in terms of PSR rules.

“In terms of PSR, Calafiori’s fee will effectively be spread out over what is believed to be a five-year deal,” Williams added.

“The fees from any sales meanwhile would register in the accounts immediately, so I don’t think they will be under any pressure to sell from a financial perspective.

“Arsenal have exercised good wage control in recent years, however, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they do decide to balance the books with one or more sales.”

Which would be the better sale between Zinchenko and Kiwior?

Arsenal can only sell either player if offers come in, and there appears to be more interest in Kiwior.

Neither established themselves as Arteta’s starting left-back, with it becoming clear that Kiwior is more naturally suited to a role at centre-back, whilst Zinchenko’s defensive abilities were criticised last season.

If equal offers came in for both players, based on their book values and wages, Zinchenko would be the more profitable sale, but right now, Kiwior looks more likely to exit given that he is keen on a return to Serie A.

The possibility of Arsenal selling both cannot be ruled out. Timber can replace Zinchenko, having hardly featured last season, whilst Calafiori can replace Kiwior, without Arteta losing too much depth, but he may wish to keep Zinchenko given his unique profile of a specialist inverted left-back who can tuck into midfield.